In the September issue of his Current Economic Conditions newsletter, entitled "August Slowdown in Employment and Inflation Likely Transitory," Robert Fry, Chief Economist of Robert Fry Economics LLC, explains that smaller-than-expected increases in payroll employment and the Consumer Price Index in August were due to a resurgence in COVID-19 cases that has already been reversed. By discouraging travel, the resurgence halted the recovery in employment in the leisure and hospitality industry and put downward pressure on the prices of airline tickets, hotel rooms, and rental cars. Going forward, employment growth is likely to reaccelerate in response to the recent downturn in COVID-19 cases and the September 5 expiration of enhanced unemployment insurance benefits. Inflation is also likely to reaccelerate because demand is strong enough to allow businesses to pass their cost increases on to their customers. With households sitting on mountains of “surplus” savings and wage-and-salary income likely to rise strongly, demand is likely to remain strong. To the extent supply can meet demand, that means strong growth. To the extent it can't, it means high inflation. Fry expects more of both.

It all begins with an idea. Maybe you want to launch a business.

It all begins with an idea. Maybe you want to launch a business.

It all begins with an idea. Maybe you want to launch a business.